Mad Thoughts

newsweek:

We are encouraged by this week’s cover story, “The Case Against Layoffs;” a taste:

There are a number of myths that have taken hold to justify managers’ urge to downsize. Many of them aren’t true. For instance, contrary to popular belief, companies that announce layoffs do not enjoy higher stock prices than peers—either immediately or over time. A study of 141 layoff announcements between 1979 and 1997 found negative stock returns to companies announcing layoffs, with larger and permanent layoffs leading to greater negative effects. An examination of 1,445 downsizing announcements between 1990 and 1998 also reported that downsizing had a negative effect on stock-market returns, and the negative effects were larger the greater the extent of the downsizing. Yet another study comparing 300 layoff announcements in the United States and 73 in Japan found that in both countries, there were negative abnormal shareholder returns following the announcement.

Layoffs don’t increase individual company productivity, either. A study of productivity changes between 1977 and 1987 in more than 140,000 U.S. companies using Census of Manufacturers data found that companies that enjoyed the greatest increases in productivity were just as likely to have added workers as they were to have downsized. The study concluded that the growth in productivity during the 1980s could not be attributed to firms becoming “lean and mean.” Wharton professor Peter Cappelli found that labor costs per employee decreased under downsizing, but sales per employee fell, too.

Another myth: layoffs increase profits. Even after statistically controlling for prior profitability, a study of 122 companies found that downsizing reduced subsequent profitability and that the negative consequences of downsizing were particularly evident in R&D-intensive industries and in companies that experienced growth in sales. Cascio’s study of firms in the S&P 500 found that companies that downsized remained less profitable than those that did not. An American Management Association survey that assessed companies’ own perceptions of layoff effects found that only about half reported that downsizing increased operating profits, while just a third reported a positive effect on worker productivity.

Layoffs don’t even reliably cut costs. That’s because when a layoff is announced, several things happen. First, people head for the door—and it is often the best people (who haven’t been laid off) who are the most capable of finding alternative work. Second, companies often lose people they didn’t want to lose. I had a friend who worked in senior management for a large insurance company. When the company decided to downsize in the face of growing competition in financial services, he took the package—only to be told by the CEO that the company really didn’t want to lose him. So, he was “rehired” even as he retained his severance. A few years later, the same thing happened again. One survey by the American Management Association (AMA) revealed that about one third of the companies that had laid people off subsequently rehired some of them as contractors because they still needed their skills.

We would add, though, that layoffs often do work, at least for the short-term interests of a company’s upper management; that’s why CEOs do them. If, for instance, the difference between a CEO making his bonus or not is cutting a few million in salary costs before the end of the fiscal year, you can bet he’s going to do it—even if the company rehires for those same jobs next year.